Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

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Telecom Argentina SA Class B backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Telecom Argentina SA Class B. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is EMA 크로스오버 (CAGR 25.9%, MDD -52.3%).

Data 2000-01-03 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 6,618 (26.6 years)Costs 0.5%Venue BCBAMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 27.5%, drawdown -94.0%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 26.5%, MDD -64.7%, Sharpe 0.78, 73% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: EMA 크로스오버 — CAGR is 1.0%p lower than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 29.3%p (CAGR 25.9%, MDD -52.3%, exposure 71%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=67, exitN=104
26.5%-64.7%0.780.41517.7x2573%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=53, slow=163
26.3%-65.3%0.750.40499.2x3369%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=29, slow=190
25.9%-52.3%0.750.50456.2x3371%
ROC 모멘텀
n=148, threshold=-0.04
22.3%-71.3%0.670.31209.5x14571%
Supertrend
period=17, mult=5
17.7%-64.1%0.630.2875.5x8158%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=58, k=2
14.5%-59.7%0.600.2436.9x10140%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=47, atrPeriod=13, mult=1.4
14.7%-68.8%0.590.2138.0x19544%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.03, maxStep=0.14
10.9%-69.6%0.470.1615.7x66555%
MACD
fast=12, slow=42, signal=11
9.6%-63.5%0.440.1511.5x41351%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=38, threshold=11
6.8%-63.1%0.370.115.7x18340%
Buy and hold27.5%-94.0%0.720.29631.8x1100%
0.1 1x 10x 100x 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 Donchian 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Donchian 채널 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -23% -47% -70% -94% 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파
Donchian 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -64.7% (2004-01-19 → 2004-06-14), recovered after 1,114 days.

Rules of the top strategy

A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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