Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · Strategies 한국어
Strategies
Donchian channel breakout
A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).
The rules
- Buy — Buy on a breakout above the highest high of the last 43 days
- Sell — Sell when price breaks below the lowest low of the last 8 days
Those numbers are the values optimized for Bitcoin. They differ per asset — the table below lists each.
There are 2 tunable values: entryN, exitN. Fewer knobs make it harder to fit noise, so a count this low keeps overfitting risk relatively contained.
Results by asset
The same strategy across 5 very different assets, each over its full history, with parameters optimized per asset. It beat buy and hold on 4 of 5.
| Asset · parameters | CAGR | Hold CAGR | Max drawdown | Hold DD | Sharpe | Trades | Time in market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin entryN=43, exitN=8 |
60.5% | 41.2% | -37.6% | -86.8% | 1.48 | 54 | 30% |
| Ethereum entryN=16, exitN=7 |
76.3% | 27.1% | -54.7% | -95.6% | 1.33 | 97 | 42% |
| XRP (Ripple) entryN=35, exitN=2 |
90.8% | 25.7% | -48.0% | -95.9% | 1.29 | 66 | 11% |
| Samsung Electronics entryN=24, exitN=68 |
13.2% | 14.2% | -50.9% | -64.8% | 0.56 | 63 | 74% |
| Apple (AAPL) entryN=32, exitN=50 |
20.4% | 18.8% | -72.6% | -82.2% | 0.72 | 111 | 70% |
When this one works
Donchian channel breakout belongs to the trend-following family. All of them earn in sustained directional moves and bleed costs in range-bound markets. The trade count and time in market columns above show how each variant leans.