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VanEck Australian Equal Weight ETF backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of VanEck Australian Equal Weight ETF. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester.

Data 2014-03-03 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 3,141 (12.4 years)Costs 0.5%Venue ASXMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 5.4%, drawdown -39.6%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 2.3%, MDD -19.6%, Sharpe 0.26, 69% exposure.

No strategy retained at least 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR while reducing drawdown by both 20% relatively and 5 percentage points absolutely.

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=37, exitN=59
2.3%-19.6%0.260.121.3x2969%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=35, slow=184
1.8%-24.1%0.220.081.3x1969%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=39, slow=200
1.7%-24.4%0.210.071.2x1871%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=16, atrPeriod=14, mult=4
0.2%-2.8%0.140.061.0x21%
Supertrend
period=21, mult=4.7
0.2%-29.7%0.070.011.0x5564%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=32, threshold=24
0.0%-3.6%0.040.011.0x21%
ROC 모멘텀
n=117, threshold=-0.03
-1.3%-40.1%-0.05-0.030.9x9779%
MACD
fast=38, slow=49, signal=34
-2.8%-37.7%-0.25-0.070.7x9448%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=16, k=3.2
-0.3%-4.0%-0.34-0.081.0x20%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.01, maxStep=0.18
-5.7%-51.7%-0.49-0.110.5x17355%
Buy and hold5.4%-39.6%0.410.141.9x1100%
1x 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Donchian 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Donchian 채널 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -10% -20% -30% -40% 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파
Donchian 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -19.6% (2021-12-29 → 2022-10-02), prior peak not yet recovered.

Rules of the top strategy

A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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