Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

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Fidelity All-in-One Growth ETF Series L Trust Units backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Fidelity All-in-One Growth ETF Series L Trust Units. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; ROC 모멘텀 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is ROC 모멘텀 (CAGR 11.1%, MDD -9.4%).

Data 2021-01-21 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 1,388 (5.5 years)Costs 0.5%Venue NEOMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 12.3%, drawdown -17.5%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): ROC 모멘텀 — CAGR 11.1%, MDD -9.4%, Sharpe 1.31, 79% exposure.

CAGR reference leader: EMA 크로스오버 — CAGR 11.3%, MDD -11.6%, exposure 79%.

Return/drawdown alternative: ROC 모멘텀 — CAGR is 1.2%p lower than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 8.1%p (CAGR 11.1%, MDD -9.4%, exposure 79%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
ROC 모멘텀
n=85, threshold=0
11.1%-9.4%1.311.181.8x2179%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=70, slow=106
11.3%-11.6%1.250.971.8x379%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=17, exitN=52
11.0%-12.7%1.190.871.8x1189%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=46, slow=184
10.2%-12.1%1.170.841.7x373%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=32, threshold=10
7.2%-14.8%0.920.491.5x4173%
Supertrend
period=29, mult=4.9
6.2%-13.6%0.800.461.4x2773%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=33, atrPeriod=21, mult=1.1
4.7%-8.9%0.710.531.3x5563%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=41, k=0.5
3.9%-11.9%0.590.331.2x4766%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.24
2.6%-11.1%0.400.231.2x5364%
MACD
fast=11, slow=55, signal=14
0.7%-15.9%0.140.041.0x7451%
Buy and hold12.3%-17.5%1.160.701.9x1100%
1x 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 EMA 크로스오버ROC 모멘텀Buy and hold
ROC 모멘텀 (Sharpe leader), EMA 크로스오버 (CAGR reference), Buy and hold.
0% -4% -9% -13% -17% 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Buy and holdEMA 크로스오버ROC 모멘텀
ROC 모멘텀 maximum drawdown -9.4% (2021-12-29 → 2022-10-20), recovered after 475 days.

Rules of the top strategy

Rides the trend when recent return (momentum) over a window is above a threshold.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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