Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · CA

Brookfield Renewable Partners LP backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Brookfield Renewable Partners LP. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; 볼린저 밴드 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester.

Data 2000-11-21 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 6,492 (25.7 years)Costs 0.5%Venue TSXMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 8.3%, drawdown -56.0%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): 볼린저 밴드 돌파 — CAGR 2.4%, MDD -27.5%, Sharpe 0.31, 15% exposure.

CAGR reference leader: Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 3.6%, MDD -51.3%, exposure 88%.

No strategy retained at least 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR while reducing drawdown by both 20% relatively and 5 percentage points absolutely.

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=58, k=3.5
2.4%-27.5%0.310.091.8x2615%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=11, exitN=79
3.6%-51.3%0.270.072.5x5788%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=41, slow=116
3.4%-69.6%0.270.052.4x4765%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=38, slow=205
3.4%-66.7%0.270.052.4x3764%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=33, threshold=27
1.0%-18.1%0.240.051.3x144%
Supertrend
period=16, mult=4.4
1.2%-55.4%0.150.021.3x9060%
ROC 모멘텀
n=244, threshold=0.01
0.5%-59.0%0.120.011.1x16763%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=65, atrPeriod=16, mult=4
0.2%-44.3%0.070.001.0x4822%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.22
-2.4%-79.2%-0.07-0.030.5x22254%
MACD
fast=19, slow=28, signal=18
-5.9%-86.2%-0.29-0.070.2x34251%
Buy and hold8.3%-56.0%0.450.157.8x1100%
1x 10x 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 Donchian 채널 돌파볼린저 밴드 돌파Buy and hold
볼린저 밴드 돌파 (Sharpe leader), Donchian 채널 돌파 (CAGR reference), Buy and hold.
0% -14% -28% -42% -56% 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파볼린저 밴드 돌파
볼린저 밴드 돌파 maximum drawdown -27.5% (2020-02-19 → 2020-07-30), recovered after 257 days.

Rules of the top strategy

Breaking above the upper band (average plus a multiple of volatility) signals a strong move up.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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