Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · CN

TDG Holding Co., Ltd. Class A backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of TDG Holding Co., Ltd. Class A. 10 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Parabolic SAR ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is Keltner 채널 돌파 (CAGR 6.8%, MDD -54.5%).

Data 2001-01-18 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 6,291 (25.5 years)Costs 0.5%Venue SSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

10 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 2.9%, drawdown -86.6%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Parabolic SAR — CAGR 8.9%, MDD -74.6%, Sharpe 0.42, 46% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: Keltner 채널 돌파 — CAGR is 6.1%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 12.0%p (CAGR 6.8%, MDD -54.5%, exposure 26%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Parabolic SAR
step=0.02, maxStep=0.02
8.9%-74.6%0.420.128.9x13646%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=57, k=2.5
7.7%-55.6%0.400.146.7x6627%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=28, threshold=11
7.9%-65.9%0.400.127.0x24647%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=49, atrPeriod=28, mult=2.7
6.8%-54.5%0.370.125.3x9026%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=37, exitN=46
6.5%-80.2%0.360.085.0x7052%
MACD
fast=19, slow=54, signal=23
6.3%-71.6%0.350.094.8x22650%
Supertrend
period=11, mult=4.9
6.0%-70.8%0.350.094.5x7656%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=14, slow=195
5.9%-79.3%0.340.074.3x5345%
ROC 모멘텀
n=110, threshold=0.03
5.9%-79.4%0.340.074.3x18045%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=23, slow=168
4.7%-88.3%0.310.053.2x4745%
Buy and hold2.9%-86.6%0.310.032.1x1100%
1x 10x 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 Parabolic SARBuy and hold
Parabolic SAR: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -22% -43% -65% -87% 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 Buy and holdParabolic SAR
Parabolic SAR maximum drawdown -74.6% (2010-12-14 → 2013-11-13), recovered after 1,638 days.

Rules of the top strategy

Trades around the Parabolic SAR dots that accelerate toward price.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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