Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어
equity · CN
Cofco Sugar Holding Co., Ltd. Class A backtest
10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Cofco Sugar Holding Co., Ltd. Class A. 5 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; ADX / DI 방향성 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is ADX / DI 방향성 (CAGR 7.1%, MDD -36.8%).
Results by strategy
5 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 7.7%, drawdown -90.2%).
Sharpe leader (same as main): ADX / DI 방향성 — CAGR 7.1%, MDD -36.8%, Sharpe 0.54, 9% exposure.
CAGR reference leader: EMA 크로스오버 — CAGR 13.4%, MDD -69.4%, exposure 54%.
Return/drawdown alternative: ADX / DI 방향성 — CAGR is 0.6%p lower than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 53.4%p (CAGR 7.1%, MDD -36.8%, exposure 9%).
The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.
| Strategy · parameters | CAGR | MDD | Sharpe | Calmar | Total | Trades | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADX / DI 방향성 period=29, threshold=30 |
7.1% | -36.8% | 0.54 | 0.19 | 7.8x | 22 | 9% |
| EMA 크로스오버 fast=38, slow=219 |
13.4% | -69.4% | 0.54 | 0.19 | 43.2x | 32 | 54% |
| SMA 크로스오버 fast=55, slow=196 |
12.8% | -69.7% | 0.53 | 0.18 | 37.2x | 40 | 56% |
| Donchian 채널 돌파 entryN=39, exitN=106 |
12.1% | -81.3% | 0.49 | 0.15 | 30.5x | 46 | 72% |
| Keltner 채널 돌파 emaPeriod=52, atrPeriod=17, mult=4 |
7.5% | -56.4% | 0.44 | 0.13 | 8.7x | 52 | 21% |
| Supertrend period=17, mult=4.7 |
9.1% | -79.3% | 0.43 | 0.11 | 13.6x | 82 | 59% |
| 볼린저 밴드 돌파 n=59, k=3.5 |
6.2% | -56.5% | 0.43 | 0.11 | 6.0x | 32 | 15% |
| ROC 모멘텀 n=78, threshold=-0.03 |
8.6% | -93.9% | 0.41 | 0.09 | 11.9x | 334 | 61% |
| Parabolic SAR step=0.02, maxStep=0.06 |
4.9% | -85.6% | 0.31 | 0.06 | 4.2x | 429 | 51% |
| MACD fast=11, slow=47, signal=9 |
1.5% | -74.3% | 0.20 | 0.02 | 1.6x | 503 | 51% |
| Buy and hold | 7.7% | -90.2% | 0.39 | 0.09 | 9.3x | 1 | 100% |
Rules of the top strategy
Looks at both the direction and the strength of the trend; holds only in a strong uptrend.
- Buy — Buy when up-direction (+DI) beats down-direction (−DI) and trend strength (ADX, 29-day) is ≥ 30
- Sell — Sell when direction flips or the trend weakens (ADX < 30)