Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · CN

Changchun High-Tech Industry (Group) Co., Ltd. Class A backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Changchun High-Tech Industry (Group) Co., Ltd. Class A. 3 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; 볼린저 밴드 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is 볼린저 밴드 돌파 (CAGR 13.4%, MDD -59.9%).

Data 1996-12-18 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 7,357 (29.6 years)Costs 0.5%Venue SZSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

3 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 11.4%, drawdown -87.9%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): 볼린저 밴드 돌파 — CAGR 13.4%, MDD -59.9%, Sharpe 0.56, 40% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: 볼린저 밴드 돌파 — CAGR is 2.0%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 28.0%p (CAGR 13.4%, MDD -59.9%, exposure 40%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=17, k=1.3
13.4%-59.9%0.560.2241.5x41340%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=31, atrPeriod=19, mult=3.5
9.2%-50.5%0.540.1813.4x5613%
Supertrend
period=17, mult=2.1
13.3%-76.7%0.530.1740.1x29951%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=7, slow=215
12.0%-63.7%0.500.1928.7x7449%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=11, slow=190
10.9%-76.1%0.470.1421.4x7649%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=60, exitN=102
11.2%-85.2%0.470.1323.4x3865%
ROC 모멘텀
n=143, threshold=-0.03
9.7%-72.7%0.440.1315.7x21854%
MACD
fast=12, slow=55, signal=14
8.6%-65.7%0.420.1311.4x37551%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.015, maxStep=0.22
7.6%-71.2%0.380.118.7x49350%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=25, threshold=18
6.1%-72.0%0.360.095.8x18331%
Buy and hold11.4%-87.9%0.470.1324.7x1100%
1x 10x 100x 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 볼린저 밴드 돌파Buy and hold
볼린저 밴드 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -22% -44% -66% -88% 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 Buy and hold볼린저 밴드 돌파
볼린저 밴드 돌파 maximum drawdown -59.9% (1997-05-12 → 2006-04-25), recovered after 3,542 days.

Rules of the top strategy

Breaking above the upper band (average plus a multiple of volatility) signals a strong move up.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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