Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · CN

GuoCheng Mining Co., Ltd. Class A backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of GuoCheng Mining Co., Ltd. Class A. 10 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is 볼린저 밴드 돌파 (CAGR 8.7%, MDD -59.5%).

Data 1997-01-20 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 7,334 (29.5 years)Costs 0.5%Venue SZSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

10 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 6.7%, drawdown -92.5%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 13.7%, MDD -84.3%, Sharpe 0.50, 63% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: 볼린저 밴드 돌파 — CAGR is 7.1%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 8.2%p (CAGR 8.7%, MDD -59.5%, exposure 32%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=24, exitN=23
13.7%-84.3%0.500.1644.8x9863%
Supertrend
period=24, mult=2.9
13.1%-59.8%0.490.2237.9x14658%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=25, k=1.1
8.7%-59.5%0.440.1511.7x26432%
MACD
fast=21, slow=45, signal=17
8.9%-70.5%0.440.1312.3x22239%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=1, slow=63
10.5%-72.9%0.430.1419.0x30459%
ROC 모멘텀
n=22, threshold=-0.03
10.6%-88.4%0.430.1219.4x49069%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.34
10.4%-63.9%0.430.1618.4x16858%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=35, threshold=13
10.3%-62.6%0.430.1618.0x13254%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=32, atrPeriod=10, mult=1.1
10.1%-65.9%0.420.1517.1x20851%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=14, slow=42
7.4%-81.6%0.390.098.3x13639%
Buy and hold6.7%-92.5%0.350.076.8x1100%
1x 10x 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 Donchian 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Donchian 채널 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -23% -46% -69% -92% 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파
Donchian 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -84.3% (2001-07-20 → 2007-02-01), recovered after 4,760 days.

Rules of the top strategy

A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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