Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

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Ningxia Orient Tantalum Industry Co., Ltd. Class A backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Ningxia Orient Tantalum Industry Co., Ltd. Class A. 8 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Parabolic SAR ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is Keltner 채널 돌파 (CAGR 4.0%, MDD -52.2%).

Data 2000-01-20 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 6,551 (26.5 years)Costs 0.5%Venue SZSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

8 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 4.4%, drawdown -92.0%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Parabolic SAR — CAGR 10.2%, MDD -67.4%, Sharpe 0.46, 52% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: Keltner 채널 돌파 — CAGR is 5.8%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 24.6%p (CAGR 4.0%, MDD -52.2%, exposure 20%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Parabolic SAR
step=0.015, maxStep=0.14
10.2%-67.4%0.460.1513.2x41052%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=113, exitN=71
9.0%-83.3%0.420.119.9x3043%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=54, slow=199
8.3%-65.5%0.410.138.4x2746%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=43, slow=152
8.2%-82.8%0.400.108.0x3347%
ROC 모멘텀
n=140, threshold=0.01
6.4%-73.2%0.360.095.2x23147%
MACD
fast=14, slow=46, signal=24
6.1%-72.9%0.350.084.8x26053%
Supertrend
period=24, mult=2.4
5.1%-64.2%0.320.083.7x24648%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=35, threshold=17
4.6%-77.0%0.300.063.3x11827%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=30, k=1.3
4.0%-71.7%0.290.062.9x23439%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=61, atrPeriod=8, mult=3.2
4.0%-52.2%0.290.082.9x5420%
Buy and hold4.4%-92.0%0.340.053.1x1100%
1x 10x 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 Parabolic SARBuy and hold
Parabolic SAR: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -23% -46% -69% -92% 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 Buy and holdParabolic SAR
Parabolic SAR maximum drawdown -67.4% (2010-12-21 → 2014-06-19), recovered after 3,817 days.

Rules of the top strategy

Trades around the Parabolic SAR dots that accelerate toward price.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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