Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

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Yunnan Lincang Xinyuan Germanium Industry Co., Ltd. Class A backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Yunnan Lincang Xinyuan Germanium Industry Co., Ltd. Class A. 1 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; MACD ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is MACD (CAGR 19.8%, MDD -53.1%).

Data 2010-06-08 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 3,920 (16.1 years)Costs 0.5%Venue SZSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

1 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 11.4%, drawdown -83.6%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): MACD — CAGR 19.8%, MDD -53.1%, Sharpe 0.68, 52% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: MACD — CAGR is 8.4%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 30.5%p (CAGR 19.8%, MDD -53.1%, exposure 52%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
MACD
fast=15, slow=28, signal=19
19.8%-53.1%0.680.3718.5x17652%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=42, k=1.8
10.0%-53.7%0.450.194.7x9035%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=51, atrPeriod=14, mult=4
8.2%-42.3%0.440.193.6x2213%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=18, exitN=65
8.9%-80.3%0.420.114.0x4576%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=8, slow=30
8.6%-68.9%0.410.123.8x15453%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.32
7.4%-67.0%0.380.113.2x12648%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=24, threshold=13
6.5%-67.3%0.360.102.8x17652%
ROC 모멘텀
n=87, threshold=0.04
5.6%-70.6%0.340.082.4x16946%
Supertrend
period=17, mult=1.6
4.6%-72.8%0.310.062.1x25648%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=59, slow=147
2.7%-83.1%0.270.031.5x3353%
Buy and hold11.4%-83.6%0.480.145.7x1100%
1x 10x 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 MACDBuy and hold
MACD: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -21% -42% -63% -84% 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Buy and holdMACD
MACD maximum drawdown -53.1% (2010-11-10 → 2012-08-16), recovered after 1,654 days.

Rules of the top strategy

Looks at the gap (MACD) between a short and long average crossing its own signal line.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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