Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

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Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co., Ltd. Class A backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co., Ltd. Class A. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; SMA 크로스오버 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is ROC 모멘텀 (CAGR 25.7%, MDD -52.7%).

Data 2012-01-13 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 3,530 (14.5 years)Costs 0.5%Venue SZSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 25.7%, drawdown -74.7%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): SMA 크로스오버 — CAGR 25.1%, MDD -52.7%, Sharpe 0.76, 57% exposure.

CAGR reference leader: ROC 모멘텀 — CAGR 25.7%, MDD -52.7%, exposure 67%.

Return/drawdown alternative: ROC 모멘텀 — CAGR is 0.6%p lower than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 21.9%p (CAGR 25.7%, MDD -52.7%, exposure 67%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
SMA 크로스오버
fast=28, slow=292
25.1%-52.7%0.760.4826.1x1557%
ROC 모멘텀
n=263, threshold=-0.07
25.7%-52.7%0.760.4927.9x3767%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=31, slow=250
24.5%-52.7%0.750.4624.2x1161%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=22, exitN=74
22.3%-67.6%0.680.3318.7x2780%
Supertrend
period=25, mult=4.9
14.5%-75.3%0.560.197.2x4057%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=54, k=1.3
11.1%-59.6%0.480.194.6x7641%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=16, atrPeriod=28, mult=3.3
7.3%-36.1%0.470.202.8x229%
MACD
fast=12, slow=28, signal=16
10.5%-59.0%0.470.184.3x20849%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=30, threshold=17
8.9%-57.5%0.440.153.5x5931%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.01, maxStep=0.24
8.8%-66.6%0.420.133.4x17250%
Buy and hold25.7%-74.7%0.730.3427.9x1100%
1x 10x 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 ROC 모멘텀SMA 크로스오버Buy and hold
SMA 크로스오버 (Sharpe leader), ROC 모멘텀 (CAGR reference), Buy and hold.
0% -19% -37% -56% -75% 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Buy and holdROC 모멘텀SMA 크로스오버
SMA 크로스오버 maximum drawdown -52.7% (2026-06-29 → 2026-07-20), prior peak not yet recovered.

Rules of the top strategy

When the short average rises above the long average, it reads that as an uptrend starting.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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