Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

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Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co., Ltd. Class A backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co., Ltd. Class A. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; ROC 모멘텀 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester.

Data 2015-02-17 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 2,780 (11.4 years)Costs 0.5%Venue SZSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 44.6%, drawdown -72.4%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): ROC 모멘텀 — CAGR 35.5%, MDD -60.1%, Sharpe 0.85, 59% exposure.

No strategy retained at least 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR while reducing drawdown by both 20% relatively and 5 percentage points absolutely.

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
ROC 모멘텀
n=38, threshold=-0.03
35.5%-60.1%0.850.5932.4x15259%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=23, exitN=75
33.3%-71.1%0.800.4726.8x2475%
Supertrend
period=7, mult=4.6
32.3%-61.2%0.790.5324.6x3270%
MACD
fast=18, slow=23, signal=18
26.0%-59.4%0.740.4414.2x13850%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=12, slow=64
26.0%-60.2%0.720.4314.1x5054%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=25, slow=48
25.4%-71.8%0.700.3513.3x3856%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.3
24.0%-69.9%0.700.3411.7x9851%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=19, k=2
21.5%-64.4%0.690.339.3x10832%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=21, atrPeriod=16, mult=2.3
20.5%-59.7%0.690.348.4x6224%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=19, threshold=14
18.8%-77.0%0.600.247.2x16253%
Buy and hold44.6%-72.4%0.910.6268.2x1100%
1x 10x 100x 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 ROC 모멘텀Buy and hold
ROC 모멘텀: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -18% -36% -54% -72% 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Buy and holdROC 모멘텀
ROC 모멘텀 maximum drawdown -60.1% (2015-12-24 → 2018-08-15), recovered after 1,659 days.

Rules of the top strategy

Rides the trend when recent return (momentum) over a window is above a threshold.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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