Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

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JPMorgan American Investment Trust Plc backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of JPMorgan American Investment Trust Plc. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; ROC 모멘텀 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is ROC 모멘텀 (CAGR 11.5%, MDD -47.4%).

Data 1970-01-01 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 14,592 (56.6 years)Costs 0.5%Venue LSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 12.3%, drawdown -68.5%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): ROC 모멘텀 — CAGR 11.5%, MDD -47.4%, Sharpe 0.35, 92% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: ROC 모멘텀 — CAGR is 0.8%p lower than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 21.2%p (CAGR 11.5%, MDD -47.4%, exposure 92%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
ROC 모멘텀
n=158, threshold=-0.15
11.5%-47.4%0.350.24480.6x5992%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=13, exitN=118
9.5%-83.3%0.310.11173.7x15592%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=13, atrPeriod=9, mult=2.5
2.5%-48.5%0.260.054.0x29026%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=22, slow=138
7.1%-57.9%0.250.1247.6x12968%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=10, slow=68
7.0%-51.6%0.250.1344.8x26360%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.01, maxStep=0.14
6.3%-55.0%0.230.1131.9x54456%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=59, k=1.1
5.8%-41.4%0.220.1424.8x29251%
Supertrend
period=21, mult=4
4.6%-88.3%0.200.0512.7x40961%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=31, threshold=15
3.8%-42.4%0.180.098.2x32240%
MACD
fast=19, slow=48, signal=18
0.1%-74.9%0.090.001.1x57650%
Buy and hold12.3%-68.5%0.370.18720.8x1100%
1x 10x 100x 1971 1978 1985 1992 1999 2006 2013 2020 ROC 모멘텀Buy and hold
ROC 모멘텀: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -17% -34% -51% -69% 1971 1978 1985 1992 1999 2006 2013 2020 Buy and holdROC 모멘텀
ROC 모멘텀 maximum drawdown -47.4% (2000-09-04 → 2003-03-12), recovered after 3,802 days.

Rules of the top strategy

Rides the trend when recent return (momentum) over a window is above a threshold.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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