Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · HK

Henderson Land Development Co. Ltd. backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Henderson Land Development Co. Ltd.. 8 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Supertrend ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is Supertrend (CAGR 5.0%, MDD -34.7%).

Data 2000-01-04 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 6,623 (26.6 years)Costs 0.5%Venue HKEXMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

8 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 0.4%, drawdown -70.9%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Supertrend — CAGR 5.0%, MDD -34.7%, Sharpe 0.34, 49% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: Supertrend — CAGR is 4.6%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 36.3%p (CAGR 5.0%, MDD -34.7%, exposure 49%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Supertrend
period=21, mult=4.4
5.0%-34.7%0.340.143.6x9549%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=39, exitN=26
3.5%-40.4%0.270.092.5x9043%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=34, atrPeriod=13, mult=2.4
2.7%-41.1%0.250.072.0x12027%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=41, slow=100
2.1%-60.1%0.200.031.7x6850%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=53, k=1.1
1.5%-52.3%0.180.031.5x15639%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=17, slow=118
1.3%-52.8%0.170.031.4x7852%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.28
1.2%-52.5%0.160.021.4x20753%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=27, threshold=12
0.9%-43.6%0.140.021.3x25944%
MACD
fast=16, slow=51, signal=21
-0.1%-65.2%0.10-0.001.0x28150%
ROC 모멘텀
n=61, threshold=-0.03
-1.0%-70.0%0.06-0.010.8x29460%
Buy and hold0.4%-70.9%0.170.011.1x1100%
1x 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 SupertrendBuy and hold
Supertrend: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -18% -35% -53% -71% 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 Buy and holdSupertrend
Supertrend maximum drawdown -34.7% (2019-04-10 → 2020-11-09), prior peak not yet recovered.

Rules of the top strategy

Trades the direction of a volatility-based trend line that trails below/above price.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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