Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

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AIA Engineering Limited backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of AIA Engineering Limited. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Supertrend ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is ROC 모멘텀 (CAGR 17.4%, MDD -55.0%).

Data 2005-12-14 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 5,090 (20.6 years)Costs 0.5%Venue NSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 20.5%, drawdown -69.4%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Supertrend — CAGR 15.5%, MDD -50.1%, Sharpe 0.67, 63% exposure.

CAGR reference leader: ROC 모멘텀 — CAGR 17.4%, MDD -55.0%, exposure 93%.

Return/drawdown alternative: ROC 모멘텀 — CAGR is 5.0%p lower than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 19.3%p (CAGR 17.4%, MDD -55.0%, exposure 93%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Supertrend
period=10, mult=3.1
15.5%-50.1%0.670.3119.5x8063%
ROC 모멘텀
n=13, threshold=-0.09
17.4%-55.0%0.670.3227.4x17193%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=26, slow=157
14.3%-45.4%0.630.3115.7x4767%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.22
13.2%-39.6%0.610.3312.9x16654%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=19, exitN=70
14.5%-53.1%0.600.2716.5x4178%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=20, threshold=11
12.6%-53.1%0.570.2411.6x26363%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=27, slow=169
12.1%-51.5%0.560.2310.5x4164%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=46, k=1.9
8.9%-38.4%0.500.235.9x10839%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=57, atrPeriod=23, mult=1.6
7.4%-58.0%0.430.134.3x10943%
MACD
fast=12, slow=50, signal=17
6.2%-69.9%0.370.093.4x27049%
Buy and hold20.5%-69.4%0.710.2946.5x1100%
1x 10x 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 ROC 모멘텀SupertrendBuy and hold
Supertrend (Sharpe leader), ROC 모멘텀 (CAGR reference), Buy and hold.
0% -17% -35% -52% -69% 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 Buy and holdROC 모멘텀Supertrend
Supertrend maximum drawdown -50.1% (2018-08-17 → 2022-03-30), prior peak not yet recovered.

Rules of the top strategy

Trades the direction of a volatility-based trend line that trails below/above price.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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