Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

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KEI Industries Limited backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of KEI Industries Limited. 5 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is Donchian 채널 돌파 (CAGR 36.0%, MDD -61.1%).

Data 2006-03-23 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 5,025 (20.4 years)Costs 0.5%Venue NSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

5 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 22.9%, drawdown -95.6%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 36.0%, MDD -61.1%, Sharpe 0.94, 78% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR is 13.1%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 34.5%p (CAGR 36.0%, MDD -61.1%, exposure 78%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=32, exitN=79
36.0%-61.1%0.940.59520.3x2578%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=72, slow=89
33.0%-67.8%0.930.49334.5x6365%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=35, slow=82
30.4%-66.1%0.880.46222.7x3367%
ROC 모멘텀
n=142, threshold=0
26.9%-64.6%0.810.42128.1x12966%
Supertrend
period=22, mult=5
26.8%-66.0%0.810.41125.8x4265%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=35, threshold=7
22.0%-58.5%0.700.3857.6x20664%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=60, atrPeriod=11, mult=0.9
15.9%-70.2%0.590.2320.3x16255%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=45, k=0.5
14.3%-69.0%0.550.2115.1x22255%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.03, maxStep=0.3
12.3%-81.9%0.500.1510.6x53050%
MACD
fast=7, slow=14, signal=13
9.1%-69.1%0.420.135.9x46249%
Buy and hold22.9%-95.6%0.660.2466.1x1100%
0.1 1x 10x 100x 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 Donchian 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Donchian 채널 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -24% -48% -72% -96% 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파
Donchian 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -61.1% (2010-01-18 → 2013-11-13), recovered after 1,555 days.

Rules of the top strategy

A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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