Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

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Supreme Industries Limited backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Supreme Industries Limited. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is Donchian 채널 돌파 (CAGR 31.5%, MDD -52.6%).

Data 2002-07-01 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 5,981 (24.1 years)Costs 0.5%Venue NSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 31.5%, drawdown -75.5%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 31.5%, MDD -52.6%, Sharpe 0.84, 64% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR is 0.1%p lower than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 22.9%p (CAGR 31.5%, MDD -52.6%, exposure 64%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=20, exitN=24
31.5%-52.6%0.840.60727.9x8664%
Supertrend
period=4, mult=4.6
28.7%-52.6%0.780.55438.0x6069%
ROC 모멘텀
n=19, threshold=-0.04
27.1%-52.9%0.740.51321.6x39775%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=28, slow=213
27.0%-56.7%0.740.48318.6x2673%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=52, k=1.1
25.0%-54.5%0.730.46216.9x13853%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=48, atrPeriod=12, mult=0.8
25.1%-54.0%0.730.46218.8x19055%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=39, slow=217
26.3%-52.9%0.720.50277.5x2475%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.18
18.4%-61.5%0.640.3058.1x18757%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=16, threshold=9
15.3%-66.2%0.560.2330.7x44162%
MACD
fast=14, slow=55, signal=16
14.1%-69.7%0.540.2024.1x29352%
Buy and hold31.5%-75.5%0.790.42735.7x1100%
1x 10x 100x 1,000x 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 Donchian 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Donchian 채널 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -19% -38% -57% -76% 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파
Donchian 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -52.6% (2005-07-28 → 2005-08-09), recovered after 473 days.

Rules of the top strategy

A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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