Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

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Welspun Living Limited backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Welspun Living Limited. 9 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is Donchian 채널 돌파 (CAGR 20.5%, MDD -49.0%).

Data 2003-12-04 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 5,609 (22.7 years)Costs 0.5%Venue NSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

9 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 12.7%, drawdown -90.7%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 20.5%, MDD -49.0%, Sharpe 0.78, 41% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR is 7.9%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 41.7%p (CAGR 20.5%, MDD -49.0%, exposure 41%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=99, exitN=39
20.5%-49.0%0.780.4268.7x2741%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=75, atrPeriod=22, mult=3.2
19.0%-51.0%0.750.3751.4x4733%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=31, threshold=19
15.0%-51.3%0.710.2923.9x8023%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=29, slow=134
19.7%-72.9%0.690.2758.2x4551%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=71, k=1.8
17.3%-61.2%0.680.2836.9x6736%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=24, slow=148
18.2%-69.2%0.680.2644.4x4547%
ROC 모멘텀
n=106, threshold=0.08
17.5%-60.4%0.680.2938.9x16543%
Supertrend
period=14, mult=3.5
17.1%-61.0%0.630.2835.6x8751%
MACD
fast=24, slow=28, signal=15
13.0%-60.1%0.530.2216.1x26251%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.28
10.3%-62.5%0.460.169.2x17653%
Buy and hold12.7%-90.7%0.490.1414.9x1100%
1x 10x 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 Donchian 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Donchian 채널 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -23% -45% -68% -91% 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파
Donchian 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -49.0% (2016-06-14 → 2019-02-07), recovered after 1,735 days.

Rules of the top strategy

A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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