Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

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Yokohama Rubber Co., Ltd. backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Yokohama Rubber Co., Ltd.. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester.

Data 2000-01-04 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 6,632 (26.6 years)Costs 0.5%Venue TSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 11.7%, drawdown -67.5%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 8.4%, MDD -36.8%, Sharpe 0.52, 38% exposure.

No strategy retained at least 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR while reducing drawdown by both 20% relatively and 5 percentage points absolutely.

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=76, exitN=36
8.4%-36.8%0.520.238.6x5738%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=46, atrPeriod=28, mult=4
5.6%-28.4%0.470.204.2x5220%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=49, k=2.7
5.6%-28.5%0.450.204.3x5720%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=52, slow=110
8.3%-50.1%0.440.168.2x6354%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=27, slow=236
6.1%-67.5%0.360.094.8x4561%
Supertrend
period=25, mult=4.4
5.9%-77.2%0.360.084.6x11356%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=26, threshold=27
2.4%-29.5%0.300.081.9x369%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.34
2.4%-66.4%0.220.041.9x22655%
ROC 모멘텀
n=68, threshold=0.09
2.2%-51.3%0.210.041.8x28136%
MACD
fast=27, slow=58, signal=13
0.9%-66.2%0.160.011.3x28453%
Buy and hold11.7%-67.5%0.490.1718.9x1100%
1x 10x 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 Donchian 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Donchian 채널 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -17% -34% -51% -68% 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파
Donchian 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -36.8% (2013-05-07 → 2014-11-12), recovered after 2,883 days.

Rules of the top strategy

A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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