Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

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TDK Corporation backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of TDK Corporation. 1 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is SMA 크로스오버 (CAGR 4.2%, MDD -57.1%).

Data 2000-01-04 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 6,632 (26.6 years)Costs 0.5%Venue TSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

1 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 4.2%, drawdown -85.4%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 4.9%, MDD -84.2%, Sharpe 0.31, 83% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: SMA 크로스오버 — CAGR is 0.7%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 1.2%p (CAGR 4.2%, MDD -57.1%, exposure 58%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=13, exitN=71
4.9%-84.2%0.310.063.6x8583%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=45, slow=136
4.2%-57.1%0.290.073.0x4758%
ROC 모멘텀
n=104, threshold=-0.11
4.1%-61.8%0.290.072.9x17574%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=12, slow=152
3.4%-63.5%0.260.052.4x7956%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=47, k=2.5
2.9%-55.2%0.250.052.1x7623%
Supertrend
period=29, mult=5
2.8%-86.7%0.240.032.1x9856%
MACD
fast=21, slow=43, signal=10
2.3%-78.7%0.220.031.8x34251%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=53, atrPeriod=27, mult=3.7
1.9%-64.1%0.200.031.7x7425%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.03, maxStep=0.06
-1.4%-89.4%0.09-0.020.7x41253%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=8, threshold=36
-0.1%-66.0%0.06-0.001.0x24617%
Buy and hold4.2%-85.4%0.310.053.0x1100%
1x 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 Donchian 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Donchian 채널 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -21% -43% -64% -85% 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파
Donchian 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -84.2% (2000-08-28 → 2012-11-12), recovered after 7,374 days.

Rules of the top strategy

A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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