Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어
equity · JP
Matsui Securities Co., Ltd. backtest
10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Matsui Securities Co., Ltd.. 8 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; 볼린저 밴드 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is Keltner 채널 돌파 (CAGR 7.5%, MDD -31.2%).
Results by strategy
8 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 2.9%, drawdown -83.0%).
Sharpe leader (same as main): 볼린저 밴드 돌파 — CAGR 8.0%, MDD -40.7%, Sharpe 0.57, 16% exposure.
Return/drawdown alternative: Keltner 채널 돌파 — CAGR is 5.1%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 42.3%p (CAGR 7.5%, MDD -31.2%, exposure 19%).
The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.
| Strategy · parameters | CAGR | MDD | Sharpe | Calmar | Total | Trades | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 볼린저 밴드 돌파 n=13, k=2.4 |
8.0% | -40.7% | 0.57 | 0.20 | 6.8x | 160 | 16% |
| Keltner 채널 돌파 emaPeriod=12, atrPeriod=11, mult=1.9 |
7.5% | -31.2% | 0.53 | 0.24 | 6.0x | 168 | 19% |
| Donchian 채널 돌파 entryN=30, exitN=8 |
6.0% | -41.9% | 0.42 | 0.14 | 4.3x | 162 | 28% |
| Parabolic SAR step=0.01, maxStep=0.16 |
6.3% | -61.8% | 0.38 | 0.10 | 4.6x | 300 | 51% |
| Supertrend period=9, mult=5 |
4.4% | -67.6% | 0.30 | 0.06 | 2.9x | 105 | 48% |
| ADX / DI 방향성 period=32, threshold=13 |
4.1% | -54.4% | 0.30 | 0.07 | 2.7x | 185 | 32% |
| MACD fast=15, slow=36, signal=20 |
3.4% | -56.0% | 0.26 | 0.06 | 2.3x | 289 | 51% |
| ROC 모멘텀 n=77, threshold=0.2 |
2.9% | -48.1% | 0.26 | 0.06 | 2.1x | 132 | 14% |
| EMA 크로스오버 fast=48, slow=239 |
1.8% | -77.9% | 0.19 | 0.02 | 1.5x | 33 | 43% |
| SMA 크로스오버 fast=16, slow=25 |
0.7% | -62.2% | 0.15 | 0.01 | 1.2x | 289 | 49% |
| Buy and hold | 2.9% | -83.0% | 0.26 | 0.04 | 2.0x | 1 | 100% |
Rules of the top strategy
Breaking above the upper band (average plus a multiple of volatility) signals a strong move up.
- Buy — Buy when the close breaks above the upper band of the 13-day average (2.4× volatility)
- Sell — Sell when the close falls back to the 13-day middle average