Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · SA

Saudi Energy Co. backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Saudi Energy Co.. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Parabolic SAR ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester.

Data 2010-03-03 ~ 2026-07-30daily bars 4,034 (16.4 years)Costs 0.5%Venue TADAWULMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 2.0%, drawdown -57.1%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Parabolic SAR — CAGR 1.7%, MDD -54.1%, Sharpe 0.19, 52% exposure.

No strategy retained at least 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR while reducing drawdown by both 20% relatively and 5 percentage points absolutely.

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Parabolic SAR
step=0.01, maxStep=0.1
1.7%-54.1%0.190.031.3x16452%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=41, exitN=37
1.0%-51.6%0.150.021.2x5153%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=33, threshold=15
0.9%-35.3%0.140.031.2x9540%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=11, slow=89
0.3%-50.3%0.110.011.1x7153%
ROC 모멘텀
n=72, threshold=-0.09
-0.9%-64.0%0.06-0.010.9x11380%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=98, atrPeriod=23, mult=4
-0.3%-37.8%0.05-0.010.9x3731%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=58, slow=88
-0.9%-47.7%0.04-0.020.9x3749%
MACD
fast=24, slow=25, signal=17
-0.9%-50.6%0.03-0.020.9x16850%
Supertrend
period=20, mult=3.7
-1.0%-45.3%0.03-0.020.9x9755%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=19, k=1.9
-1.8%-56.7%-0.06-0.030.7x16031%
Buy and hold2.0%-57.1%0.210.041.4x1100%
1x 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Parabolic SARBuy and hold
Parabolic SAR: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -14% -29% -43% -57% 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Buy and holdParabolic SAR
Parabolic SAR maximum drawdown -54.1% (2017-07-03 → 2026-03-08), prior peak not yet recovered.

Rules of the top strategy

Trades around the Parabolic SAR dots that accelerate toward price.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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