Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어
etf · US
Overlay Shares Large Cap Equity ETF backtest
10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Overlay Shares Large Cap Equity ETF. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; ROC 모멘텀 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is ROC 모멘텀 (CAGR 12.6%, MDD -23.6%).
Results by strategy
0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 12.6%, drawdown -35.5%).
Sharpe leader (same as main): ROC 모멘텀 — CAGR 12.6%, MDD -23.6%, Sharpe 0.79, 86% exposure.
Return/drawdown alternative: ROC 모멘텀 — CAGR is 0.0%p lower than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 11.9%p (CAGR 12.6%, MDD -23.6%, exposure 86%).
The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.
| Strategy · parameters | CAGR | MDD | Sharpe | Calmar | Total | Trades | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROC 모멘텀 n=114, threshold=-0.11 |
12.6% | -23.6% | 0.79 | 0.53 | 2.3x | 21 | 86% |
| EMA 크로스오버 fast=50, slow=159 |
10.6% | -15.6% | 0.79 | 0.68 | 2.0x | 7 | 69% |
| SMA 크로스오버 fast=21, slow=153 |
9.7% | -20.3% | 0.74 | 0.48 | 1.9x | 13 | 69% |
| Donchian 채널 돌파 entryN=14, exitN=61 |
8.2% | -33.7% | 0.57 | 0.24 | 1.7x | 22 | 85% |
| Supertrend period=14, mult=4.9 |
4.5% | -25.5% | 0.43 | 0.18 | 1.4x | 32 | 61% |
| Keltner 채널 돌파 emaPeriod=77, atrPeriod=23, mult=4 |
2.9% | -13.7% | 0.34 | 0.21 | 1.2x | 20 | 43% |
| Parabolic SAR step=0.005, maxStep=0.28 |
2.8% | -22.5% | 0.28 | 0.13 | 1.2x | 68 | 64% |
| 볼린저 밴드 돌파 n=37, k=2.8 |
0.4% | -3.0% | 0.25 | 0.15 | 1.0x | 2 | 3% |
| ADX / DI 방향성 period=21, threshold=20 |
0.9% | -23.8% | 0.16 | 0.04 | 1.1x | 40 | 22% |
| MACD fast=10, slow=69, signal=17 |
0.1% | -30.6% | 0.07 | 0.00 | 1.0x | 90 | 51% |
| Buy and hold | 12.6% | -35.5% | 0.64 | 0.36 | 2.3x | 1 | 100% |
Rules of the top strategy
Rides the trend when recent return (momentum) over a window is above a threshold.
- Buy — Buy when the last 114-day return is greater than -11%
- Sell — Sell when the 114-day return drops to -11% or below