Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어
etf · US
Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3X ETF backtest
10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3X ETF. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester.
Results by strategy
0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 10.8%, drawdown -86.3%).
Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 7.2%, MDD -80.4%, Sharpe 0.40, 91% exposure.
No strategy retained at least 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR while reducing drawdown by both 20% relatively and 5 percentage points absolutely.
The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.
| Strategy · parameters | CAGR | MDD | Sharpe | Calmar | Total | Trades | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donchian 채널 돌파 entryN=5, exitN=70 |
7.2% | -80.4% | 0.40 | 0.09 | 3.3x | 73 | 91% |
| 볼린저 밴드 돌파 n=21, k=3.4 |
1.7% | -8.7% | 0.38 | 0.20 | 1.3x | 2 | 1% |
| ROC 모멘텀 n=119, threshold=-0.01 |
4.2% | -63.2% | 0.30 | 0.07 | 2.0x | 143 | 61% |
| Parabolic SAR step=0.015, maxStep=0.08 |
3.1% | -71.6% | 0.27 | 0.04 | 1.7x | 274 | 56% |
| MACD fast=11, slow=41, signal=11 |
1.0% | -64.4% | 0.22 | 0.02 | 1.2x | 301 | 53% |
| SMA 크로스오버 fast=58, slow=142 |
0.1% | -81.9% | 0.22 | 0.00 | 1.0x | 37 | 57% |
| Supertrend period=5, mult=1.9 |
0.3% | -77.2% | 0.20 | 0.00 | 1.1x | 255 | 54% |
| ADX / DI 방향성 period=34, threshold=17 |
1.9% | -38.1% | 0.19 | 0.05 | 1.4x | 48 | 13% |
| Keltner 채널 돌파 emaPeriod=52, atrPeriod=28, mult=3.8 |
1.6% | -60.0% | 0.18 | 0.03 | 1.3x | 38 | 20% |
| EMA 크로스오버 fast=37, slow=140 |
-4.1% | -89.8% | 0.09 | -0.05 | 0.5x | 41 | 56% |
| Buy and hold | 10.8% | -86.3% | 0.48 | 0.13 | 5.8x | 1 | 100% |
Rules of the top strategy
A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).
- Buy — Buy on a breakout above the highest high of the last 5 days
- Sell — Sell when price breaks below the lowest low of the last 70 days