SleepWell Trade

Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · US

Achieve Life Sciences, Inc. backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Achieve Life Sciences, Inc.. 10 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Parabolic SAR ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester.

Data 1995-10-12 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 7,750 (30.8 years)Costs 0.5%Venue XNASMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

10 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR -29.3%, drawdown -100.0%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Parabolic SAR — CAGR -3.5%, MDD -99.1%, Sharpe 0.27, 44% exposure.

CAGR reference leader: ROC 모멘텀 — CAGR -2.4%, MDD -92.2%, exposure 40%.

No strategy retained at least 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR while reducing drawdown by both 20% relatively and 5 percentage points absolutely.

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Parabolic SAR
step=0.01, maxStep=0.2
-3.5%-99.1%0.27-0.030.3x35444%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=19, threshold=8
-4.0%-99.7%0.26-0.040.3x48951%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=21, k=1.1
-3.9%-98.4%0.25-0.040.3x40034%
ROC 모멘텀
n=52, threshold=0.02
-2.4%-92.2%0.24-0.030.5x42340%
MACD
fast=12, slow=35, signal=9
-8.9%-99.4%0.24-0.090.1x51053%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=7, slow=42
-3.5%-95.6%0.22-0.040.3x23342%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=19, exitN=33
-6.3%-99.5%0.21-0.060.1x12956%
Supertrend
period=14, mult=3.9
-3.6%-98.3%0.20-0.040.3x11740%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=36, slow=126
-5.9%-99.4%0.18-0.060.2x6939%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=20, atrPeriod=10, mult=1.2
-3.4%-97.0%0.17-0.030.3x28226%
Buy and hold-29.3%-100.0%0.11-0.290.0x1100%
0.00001 0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1x 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 ROC 모멘텀Parabolic SARBuy and hold
Parabolic SAR (Sharpe leader), ROC 모멘텀 (CAGR reference), Buy and hold.
0% -25% -50% -75% -100% 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 Buy and holdROC 모멘텀Parabolic SAR
Parabolic SAR maximum drawdown -99.1% (2003-09-24 → 2022-11-16), prior peak not yet recovered.

Rules of the top strategy

Trades around the Parabolic SAR dots that accelerate toward price.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupMore US assetsAll asset reports

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