Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · US

Baker Hughes Company backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Baker Hughes Company. 1 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is Donchian 채널 돌파 (CAGR 5.3%, MDD -63.7%).

Data 1987-04-06 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 9,905 (39.3 years)Costs 0.5%Venue XNASMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

1 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 3.0%, drawdown -90.5%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 5.3%, MDD -63.7%, Sharpe 0.32, 64% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR is 2.3%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 26.8%p (CAGR 5.3%, MDD -63.7%, exposure 64%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=46, exitN=69
5.3%-63.7%0.320.087.6x7864%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=12, slow=197
2.8%-59.4%0.240.053.0x10156%
Supertrend
period=19, mult=4.7
1.8%-71.2%0.200.032.0x12652%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=44, slow=107
1.6%-53.7%0.200.031.9x8057%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=41, k=1.7
1.6%-59.6%0.180.031.9x22637%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=54, atrPeriod=14, mult=1.9
0.4%-56.1%0.120.011.2x21637%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=31, threshold=35
0.2%-8.9%0.110.021.1x40%
ROC 모멘텀
n=136, threshold=0.05
-1.3%-74.4%0.07-0.020.6x36950%
MACD
fast=18, slow=59, signal=19
-3.3%-95.4%0.02-0.030.3x41151%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.32
-4.9%-97.1%-0.04-0.050.1x34351%
Buy and hold3.0%-90.5%0.280.033.2x1100%
1x 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 Donchian 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Donchian 채널 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -23% -45% -68% -91% 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파
Donchian 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -63.7% (2006-06-02 → 2009-03-06), recovered after 2,856 days.

Rules of the top strategy

A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were carried forward from the latest full optimization and replayed on this monthly dataset. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-optimize the same period and setupAll asset reports

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