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Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · US

Franklin Financial Services Corporation backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Franklin Financial Services Corporation. 2 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is Donchian 채널 돌파 (CAGR 7.0%, MDD -37.7%).

Data 1994-04-06 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 8,134 (32.3 years)Costs 0.5%Venue XNASMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

2 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 5.0%, drawdown -60.6%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 7.0%, MDD -37.7%, Sharpe 0.40, 71% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR is 2.0%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 22.9%p (CAGR 7.0%, MDD -37.7%, exposure 71%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=37, exitN=63
7.0%-37.7%0.400.198.9x6371%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=42, slow=147
5.8%-49.5%0.360.126.2x3962%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=50, slow=106
4.9%-62.2%0.330.084.7x5161%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=75, k=2.6
3.4%-49.2%0.270.072.9x6735%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=32, threshold=17
1.6%-41.8%0.180.041.7x13432%
Supertrend
period=27, mult=4.7
0.5%-55.7%0.130.011.2x12959%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=59, atrPeriod=12, mult=3.6
0.4%-51.3%0.110.011.1x9933%
ROC 모멘텀
n=112, threshold=-0.02
-0.9%-84.6%0.07-0.010.8x29565%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.38
-3.1%-69.2%-0.05-0.040.4x20352%
MACD
fast=19, slow=56, signal=17
-9.7%-97.5%-0.36-0.100.0x40649%
Buy and hold5.0%-60.6%0.310.084.9x1100%
1x 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 2023 Donchian 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Donchian 채널 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -15% -30% -45% -61% 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 2023 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파
Donchian 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -37.7% (2009-10-15 → 2012-07-23), recovered after 1,806 days.

Rules of the top strategy

A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupMore US assetsAll asset reports

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