Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · US

Healthcare Services Group, Inc. backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Healthcare Services Group, Inc.. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; EMA 크로스오버 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is EMA 크로스오버 (CAGR 10.0%, MDD -49.5%).

Data 1983-11-29 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 10,751 (42.7 years)Costs 0.5%Venue XNASMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 10.7%, drawdown -84.0%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): EMA 크로스오버 — CAGR 10.0%, MDD -49.5%, Sharpe 0.47, 62% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: EMA 크로스오버 — CAGR is 0.7%p lower than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 34.5%p (CAGR 10.0%, MDD -49.5%, exposure 62%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
EMA 크로스오버
fast=88, slow=180
10.0%-49.5%0.470.2059.0x2762%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=46, slow=193
7.1%-75.3%0.380.0918.5x7162%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=13, exitN=77
3.3%-93.3%0.280.044.0x10388%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=30, threshold=26
2.5%-48.3%0.230.052.9x6815%
ROC 모멘텀
n=146, threshold=-0.06
2.1%-86.9%0.230.022.4x30772%
Supertrend
period=11, mult=5
-0.3%-85.7%0.14-0.000.9x11761%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=43, k=3.5
-0.9%-49.8%-0.03-0.020.7x5410%
MACD
fast=20, slow=24, signal=31
-6.8%-98.5%-0.07-0.070.0x50651%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.015, maxStep=0.22
-7.0%-99.4%-0.09-0.070.0x67053%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=40, atrPeriod=10, mult=4
-1.8%-74.7%-0.13-0.020.5x528%
Buy and hold10.7%-84.0%0.450.1376.7x1100%
1x 10x 100x 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 2020 2026 EMA 크로스오버Buy and hold
EMA 크로스오버: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -21% -42% -63% -84% 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 2020 2026 Buy and holdEMA 크로스오버
EMA 크로스오버 maximum drawdown -49.5% (1998-07-28 → 2001-03-23), recovered after 1,281 days.

Rules of the top strategy

Uses two exponential averages (more weight on recent prices) and trades their crossover.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were carried forward from the latest full optimization and replayed on this monthly dataset. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-optimize the same period and setupAll asset reports

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