Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어
equity · US
IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc. backtest
10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of IDEAYA Biosciences, Inc.. 7 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; ROC 모멘텀 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is ROC 모멘텀 (CAGR 25.4%, MDD -39.6%).
Results by strategy
7 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 17.3%, drawdown -74.6%).
Sharpe leader (same as main): ROC 모멘텀 — CAGR 25.4%, MDD -39.6%, Sharpe 0.69, 57% exposure.
Return/drawdown alternative: ROC 모멘텀 — CAGR is 8.0%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 35.1%p (CAGR 25.4%, MDD -39.6%, exposure 57%).
The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.
| Strategy · parameters | CAGR | MDD | Sharpe | Calmar | Total | Trades | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROC 모멘텀 n=158, threshold=0.07 |
25.4% | -39.6% | 0.69 | 0.64 | 5.1x | 39 | 57% |
| Donchian 채널 돌파 entryN=104, exitN=47 |
20.2% | -39.6% | 0.65 | 0.51 | 3.8x | 9 | 47% |
| EMA 크로스오버 fast=34, slow=188 |
19.4% | -44.2% | 0.60 | 0.44 | 3.6x | 9 | 59% |
| SMA 크로스오버 fast=11, slow=28 |
19.6% | -62.9% | 0.59 | 0.31 | 3.6x | 66 | 53% |
| MACD fast=15, slow=50, signal=24 |
19.4% | -74.2% | 0.58 | 0.26 | 3.6x | 80 | 49% |
| ADX / DI 방향성 period=22, threshold=15 |
18.0% | -57.6% | 0.57 | 0.31 | 3.3x | 59 | 51% |
| Supertrend period=13, mult=3.3 |
17.8% | -57.0% | 0.57 | 0.31 | 3.2x | 27 | 56% |
| Parabolic SAR step=0.01, maxStep=0.08 |
10.1% | -75.7% | 0.44 | 0.13 | 2.0x | 100 | 49% |
| 볼린저 밴드 돌파 n=41, k=1.2 |
10.3% | -70.0% | 0.44 | 0.15 | 2.0x | 49 | 43% |
| Keltner 채널 돌파 emaPeriod=17, atrPeriod=13, mult=2 |
4.1% | -56.9% | 0.28 | 0.07 | 1.3x | 30 | 17% |
| Buy and hold | 17.3% | -74.6% | 0.57 | 0.23 | 3.2x | 1 | 100% |
Rules of the top strategy
Rides the trend when recent return (momentum) over a window is above a threshold.
- Buy — Buy when the last 158-day return is greater than 7%
- Sell — Sell when the 158-day return drops to 7% or below