Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · US

Rambus, Inc. backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Rambus, Inc.. 1 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Supertrend ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester.

Data 1997-05-14 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 7,349 (29.2 years)Costs 0.5%Venue XNASMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

1 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 8.9%, drawdown -97.2%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Supertrend — CAGR 11.1%, MDD -81.5%, Sharpe 0.47, 57% exposure.

No strategy retained at least 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR while reducing drawdown by both 20% relatively and 5 percentage points absolutely.

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Supertrend
period=14, mult=4.8
11.1%-81.5%0.470.1421.4x9457%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=50, slow=192
8.6%-82.3%0.400.1111.3x4555%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=40, k=1.7
8.0%-84.3%0.400.109.6x17437%
MACD
fast=9, slow=14, signal=9
7.0%-89.5%0.380.087.1x69250%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=25, slow=117
5.9%-91.7%0.360.065.3x7454%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.02, maxStep=0.2
6.4%-88.5%0.360.076.1x57249%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=28, exitN=60
4.3%-91.7%0.350.053.4x8269%
ROC 모멘텀
n=87, threshold=0
2.2%-91.5%0.290.021.9x28455%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=12, atrPeriod=18, mult=1.6
4.2%-80.3%0.290.053.3x26622%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=24, threshold=7
0.7%-87.6%0.250.011.2x46654%
Buy and hold8.9%-97.2%0.470.0912.0x1100%
1x 10x 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 SupertrendBuy and hold
Supertrend: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -24% -49% -73% -97% 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 Buy and holdSupertrend
Supertrend maximum drawdown -81.5% (2010-04-23 → 2012-12-31), recovered after 4,772 days.

Rules of the top strategy

Trades the direction of a volatility-based trend line that trails below/above price.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were carried forward from the latest full optimization and replayed on this monthly dataset. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-optimize the same period and setupAll asset reports

Read next