Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · US

Atlassian Corporation backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Atlassian Corporation. 4 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; EMA 크로스오버 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is Donchian 채널 돌파 (CAGR 20.7%, MDD -35.2%).

Data 2015-12-09 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 2,675 (10.6 years)Costs 0.5%Venue XNASMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

4 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 15.9%, drawdown -87.5%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): EMA 크로스오버 — CAGR 23.9%, MDD -43.1%, Sharpe 0.79, 60% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR is 8.0%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 44.5%p (CAGR 20.7%, MDD -35.2%, exposure 55%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
EMA 크로스오버
fast=31, slow=213
23.9%-43.1%0.790.569.8x860%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=83, exitN=64
20.7%-35.2%0.750.597.4x1255%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=38, slow=52
21.8%-45.7%0.730.488.1x5856%
ROC 모멘텀
n=139, threshold=-0.04
21.6%-48.1%0.720.458.0x4866%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=13, atrPeriod=26, mult=4
3.4%-8.5%0.590.401.4x63%
Supertrend
period=37, mult=4.5
13.9%-55.8%0.550.254.0x3655%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=58, k=1.2
9.7%-40.4%0.450.242.7x6144%
MACD
fast=16, slow=29, signal=19
9.6%-58.1%0.430.172.7x13951%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.01, maxStep=0.1
5.8%-60.1%0.330.101.8x14354%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=17, threshold=29
1.9%-25.0%0.210.081.2x2413%
Buy and hold15.9%-87.5%0.540.184.8x1100%
1x 10x 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 EMA 크로스오버Buy and hold
EMA 크로스오버: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -22% -44% -66% -88% 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Buy and holdEMA 크로스오버
EMA 크로스오버 maximum drawdown -43.1% (2025-02-10 → 2025-04-08), prior peak not yet recovered.

Rules of the top strategy

Uses two exponential averages (more weight on recent prices) and trades their crossover.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were carried forward from the latest full optimization and replayed on this monthly dataset. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-optimize the same period and setupAll asset reports

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