Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · US

Dime Commercial Bancshares, Inc. backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Dime Commercial Bancshares, Inc.. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; 볼린저 밴드 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester.

Data 1999-01-12 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 6,930 (27.5 years)Costs 0.5%Venue XNYSMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 3.8%, drawdown -60.0%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): 볼린저 밴드 돌파 — CAGR 2.3%, MDD -48.1%, Sharpe 0.23, 18% exposure.

No strategy retained at least 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR while reducing drawdown by both 20% relatively and 5 percentage points absolutely.

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=76, k=2.8
2.3%-48.1%0.230.051.9x3818%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=58, slow=84
0.6%-78.4%0.140.011.2x10754%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=103, exitN=39
-0.1%-72.9%0.08-0.001.0x5734%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=32, slow=60
-0.7%-80.6%0.07-0.010.8x9951%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=38, threshold=22
-0.3%-29.8%0.02-0.010.9x267%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=44, atrPeriod=8, mult=3.9
-1.2%-63.3%-0.04-0.020.7x5412%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.01, maxStep=0.18
-5.5%-85.8%-0.12-0.060.2x33853%
ROC 모멘텀
n=112, threshold=0.14
-3.2%-80.0%-0.14-0.040.4x19920%
Supertrend
period=13, mult=3.5
-6.4%-93.1%-0.18-0.070.2x18549%
MACD
fast=15, slow=41, signal=13
-7.4%-93.6%-0.21-0.080.1x41050%
Buy and hold3.8%-60.0%0.280.062.8x1100%
1x 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 볼린저 밴드 돌파Buy and hold
볼린저 밴드 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -15% -30% -45% -60% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 Buy and hold볼린저 밴드 돌파
볼린저 밴드 돌파 maximum drawdown -48.1% (2004-04-06 → 2015-10-30), recovered after 7,535 days.

Rules of the top strategy

Breaking above the upper band (average plus a multiple of volatility) signals a strong move up.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were carried forward from the latest full optimization and replayed on this monthly dataset. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-optimize the same period and setupAll asset reports

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