Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · US

Eastman Chemical Company backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Eastman Chemical Company. 4 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is Donchian 채널 돌파 (CAGR 5.4%, MDD -45.8%).

Data 1993-12-14 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 8,212 (32.6 years)Costs 0.5%Venue XNYSMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

4 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 3.5%, drawdown -76.8%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 5.4%, MDD -45.8%, Sharpe 0.35, 68% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR is 1.9%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 31.0%p (CAGR 5.4%, MDD -45.8%, exposure 68%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=29, exitN=59
5.4%-45.8%0.350.125.6x8268%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=18, slow=80
4.8%-48.9%0.330.104.7x13056%
Supertrend
period=8, mult=4.5
4.6%-51.9%0.320.094.4x12054%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=31, slow=51
4.5%-51.2%0.320.094.2x11058%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=51, atrPeriod=26, mult=2
1.2%-58.6%0.160.021.5x18439%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=16, k=3.2
0.4%-22.7%0.110.021.1x182%
ROC 모멘텀
n=125, threshold=-0.04
-0.4%-69.5%0.09-0.010.9x22766%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=18, threshold=25
-0.1%-46.0%0.05-0.001.0x14614%
MACD
fast=18, slow=56, signal=15
-1.9%-77.8%0.01-0.020.5x37148%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.015, maxStep=0.26
-3.2%-74.8%-0.05-0.040.3x57952%
Buy and hold3.5%-76.8%0.270.053.1x1100%
1x 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 Donchian 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Donchian 채널 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -19% -38% -58% -77% 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파
Donchian 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -45.8% (2021-06-01 → 2025-12-23), prior peak not yet recovered.

Rules of the top strategy

A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were carried forward from the latest full optimization and replayed on this monthly dataset. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-optimize the same period and setupAll asset reports

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