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Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · US

HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc. backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of HomeTrust Bancshares, Inc.. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is Supertrend (CAGR 8.8%, MDD -32.3%).

Data 2012-07-11 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 3,534 (14.1 years)Costs 0.5%Venue XNYSMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 11.0%, drawdown -58.3%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 8.6%, MDD -32.4%, Sharpe 0.55, 54% exposure.

CAGR reference leader: Supertrend — CAGR 8.8%, MDD -32.3%, exposure 70%.

Return/drawdown alternative: Supertrend — CAGR is 2.4%p lower than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 25.8%p (CAGR 8.8%, MDD -32.3%, exposure 70%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=85, exitN=43
8.6%-32.4%0.550.263.2x2154%
Supertrend
period=24, mult=5
8.8%-32.3%0.520.273.3x2570%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=49, slow=194
8.0%-40.5%0.500.203.0x1366%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=8, slow=150
8.1%-30.0%0.500.273.0x4561%
ROC 모멘텀
n=128, threshold=-0.01
8.2%-38.0%0.490.213.0x9365%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=40, atrPeriod=26, mult=2.9
5.9%-27.9%0.480.212.2x3524%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=37, k=3.3
3.8%-21.3%0.450.181.7x1612%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.015, maxStep=0.06
1.5%-38.4%0.170.041.2x20756%
MACD
fast=15, slow=67, signal=24
0.9%-45.4%0.140.021.1x14747%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=24, threshold=21
-0.0%-29.5%0.06-0.001.0x6017%
Buy and hold11.0%-58.3%0.520.194.4x1100%
1x 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 SupertrendDonchian 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Donchian 채널 돌파 (Sharpe leader), Supertrend (CAGR reference), Buy and hold.
0% -15% -29% -44% -58% 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Buy and holdSupertrendDonchian 채널 돌파
Donchian 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -32.4% (2022-01-14 → 2024-07-05), recovered after 1,657 days.

Rules of the top strategy

A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupMore US assetsAll asset reports

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