Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · US

International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc. backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of International Flavors & Fragrances, Inc.. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; SMA 크로스오버 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is SMA 크로스오버 (CAGR 4.5%, MDD -47.4%).

Data 1974-12-17 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 13,013 (51.6 years)Costs 0.5%Venue XNYSMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 4.7%, drawdown -72.4%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): SMA 크로스오버 — CAGR 4.5%, MDD -47.4%, Sharpe 0.32, 57% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: SMA 크로스오버 — CAGR is 0.2%p lower than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 25.1%p (CAGR 4.5%, MDD -47.4%, exposure 57%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
SMA 크로스오버
fast=102, slow=187
4.5%-47.4%0.320.109.7x6557%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=105, exitN=77
0.9%-62.1%0.140.011.6x7150%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=51, slow=149
0.4%-64.9%0.110.011.2x9358%
ROC 모멘텀
n=191, threshold=-0.08
-0.2%-73.5%0.10-0.000.9x33373%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=35, threshold=37
0.1%-5.2%0.090.021.0x20%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=56, k=3.5
-0.3%-44.9%-0.02-0.010.9x347%
Supertrend
period=15, mult=5
-3.6%-90.2%-0.09-0.040.2x17556%
MACD
fast=12, slow=22, signal=16
-5.7%-95.5%-0.23-0.060.0x86150%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=76, atrPeriod=21, mult=3.1
-4.1%-89.1%-0.23-0.050.1x18634%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.015, maxStep=0.16
-8.2%-99.0%-0.35-0.080.0x93052%
Buy and hold4.7%-72.4%0.310.0710.9x1100%
1x 10x 1975 1982 1989 1996 2003 2010 2017 2024 SMA 크로스오버Buy and hold
SMA 크로스오버: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -18% -36% -54% -72% 1975 1982 1989 1996 2003 2010 2017 2024 Buy and holdSMA 크로스오버
SMA 크로스오버 maximum drawdown -47.4% (2016-09-30 → 2020-03-23), prior peak not yet recovered.

Rules of the top strategy

When the short average rises above the long average, it reads that as an uptrend starting.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were carried forward from the latest full optimization and replayed on this monthly dataset. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-optimize the same period and setupAll asset reports

Read next