Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · US

Liberty Energy Inc. backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Liberty Energy Inc.. 7 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is ADX / DI 방향성 (CAGR 1.9%, MDD -9.7%).

Data 2018-01-11 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 2,149 (8.6 years)Costs 0.5%Venue XNYSMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

7 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 1.1%, drawdown -90.3%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 8.6%, MDD -76.1%, Sharpe 0.41, 69% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: ADX / DI 방향성 — CAGR is 7.5%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 14.2%p (CAGR 1.9%, MDD -9.7%, exposure 1%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=19, exitN=53
8.6%-76.1%0.410.112.0x3069%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=23, threshold=38
1.9%-9.7%0.390.201.2x21%
ROC 모멘텀
n=124, threshold=0.02
7.4%-61.7%0.380.121.8x6447%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=56, k=3.3
4.8%-25.4%0.370.191.5x47%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=35, slow=64
2.5%-64.5%0.280.041.2x3452%
MACD
fast=14, slow=23, signal=10
1.8%-79.0%0.270.021.2x15851%
Supertrend
period=26, mult=2.6
1.6%-66.0%0.240.021.1x7847%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=16, slow=150
-0.5%-59.7%0.19-0.011.0x2449%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.01, maxStep=0.24
-4.5%-72.0%0.11-0.060.7x12049%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=22, atrPeriod=27, mult=2.2
-1.0%-48.8%0.11-0.020.9x4822%
Buy and hold1.1%-90.3%0.340.011.1x1100%
1x 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Donchian 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Donchian 채널 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -23% -45% -68% -90% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파
Donchian 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -76.1% (2018-05-21 → 2020-04-16), recovered after 928 days.

Rules of the top strategy

A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were carried forward from the latest full optimization and replayed on this monthly dataset. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-optimize the same period and setupAll asset reports

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