Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어
equity · GB
Ocado Group PLC backtest
10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Ocado Group PLC. 10 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; ADX / DI 방향성 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is ADX / DI 방향성 (CAGR 21.0%, MDD -41.6%).
Results by strategy
10 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 1.5%, drawdown -94.5%).
Sharpe leader (same as main): ADX / DI 방향성 — CAGR 21.0%, MDD -41.6%, Sharpe 0.76, 24% exposure.
Return/drawdown alternative: ADX / DI 방향성 — CAGR is 19.5%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 52.9%p (CAGR 21.0%, MDD -41.6%, exposure 24%).
The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.
| Strategy · parameters | CAGR | MDD | Sharpe | Calmar | Total | Trades | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADX / DI 방향성 period=37, threshold=20 |
21.0% | -41.6% | 0.76 | 0.50 | 21.1x | 32 | 24% |
| Keltner 채널 돌파 emaPeriod=22, atrPeriod=26, mult=2 |
20.8% | -45.4% | 0.71 | 0.46 | 20.6x | 87 | 25% |
| Donchian 채널 돌파 entryN=89, exitN=26 |
18.7% | -51.1% | 0.69 | 0.37 | 15.6x | 26 | 27% |
| 볼린저 밴드 돌파 n=19, k=1.8 |
18.5% | -50.6% | 0.63 | 0.36 | 15.1x | 163 | 33% |
| Supertrend period=27, mult=4 |
18.0% | -63.1% | 0.63 | 0.29 | 14.2x | 63 | 39% |
| Parabolic SAR step=0.045, maxStep=0.1 |
15.5% | -74.3% | 0.54 | 0.21 | 10.1x | 369 | 47% |
| MACD fast=22, slow=47, signal=13 |
15.3% | -75.1% | 0.53 | 0.20 | 9.8x | 167 | 51% |
| ROC 모멘텀 n=12, threshold=0 |
10.8% | -68.3% | 0.44 | 0.16 | 5.2x | 421 | 48% |
| EMA 크로스오버 fast=23, slow=99 |
10.0% | -81.0% | 0.44 | 0.12 | 4.6x | 42 | 42% |
| SMA 크로스오버 fast=12, slow=163 |
5.8% | -78.4% | 0.33 | 0.07 | 2.5x | 38 | 41% |
| Buy and hold | 1.5% | -94.5% | 0.31 | 0.02 | 1.3x | 1 | 100% |
Rules of the top strategy
Looks at both the direction and the strength of the trend; holds only in a strong uptrend.
- Buy — Buy when up-direction (+DI) beats down-direction (−DI) and trend strength (ADX, 37-day) is ≥ 20
- Sell — Sell when direction flips or the trend weakens (ADX < 20)