Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · NZ

Chorus Limited backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Chorus Limited. 3 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; ROC 모멘텀 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. Its 96% market exposure makes it hold-like. The return/drawdown alternative is EMA 크로스오버 (CAGR 7.2%, MDD -25.8%).

Data 2011-11-22 ~ 2026-07-30daily bars 3,678 (14.7 years)Costs 0.5%Venue NZXMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

3 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 7.6%, drawdown -64.7%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): ROC 모멘텀 — CAGR 9.9%, MDD -46.5%, Sharpe 0.52, 96% exposure. With at least 95% exposure, it should be treated as hold-like, not strong evidence of timing skill.

Return/drawdown alternative: EMA 크로스오버 — CAGR is 2.4%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 18.2%p (CAGR 7.2%, MDD -25.8%, exposure 62%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
ROC 모멘텀
Hold-like · Exposure 96%
n=21, threshold=-0.11
9.9%-46.5%0.520.214.0x3596%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=12, exitN=89
9.5%-51.1%0.520.193.8x3586%
Supertrend
period=25, mult=4.2
8.2%-34.1%0.510.243.2x5362%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=23, slow=168
7.2%-25.8%0.460.282.8x2562%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=33, slow=145
6.8%-34.4%0.440.202.6x2762%
MACD
fast=41, slow=51, signal=18
5.9%-25.6%0.420.232.3x10249%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=66, k=2.3
4.5%-34.0%0.370.131.9x4435%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=49, atrPeriod=21, mult=3.2
3.7%-38.3%0.330.101.7x4631%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=51, threshold=11
1.9%-36.7%0.200.051.3x8235%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.18
1.8%-40.7%0.190.041.3x12654%
Buy and hold7.6%-64.7%0.420.122.9x1100%
1x 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 ROC 모멘텀Buy and hold
ROC 모멘텀: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -16% -32% -49% -65% 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Buy and holdROC 모멘텀
ROC 모멘텀 maximum drawdown -46.5% (2012-03-29 → 2014-02-03), recovered after 978 days.

Rules of the top strategy

Rides the trend when recent return (momentum) over a window is above a threshold.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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