Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · US

Agilysys, Inc. backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Agilysys, Inc.. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Parabolic SAR ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester.

Data 1980-03-17 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 11,688 (46.4 years)Costs 0.5%Venue XNASMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 9.0%, drawdown -91.1%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Parabolic SAR — CAGR 5.2%, MDD -80.2%, Sharpe 0.32, 55% exposure.

No strategy retained at least 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR while reducing drawdown by both 20% relatively and 5 percentage points absolutely.

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.36
5.2%-80.2%0.320.0610.5x34555%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=7, exitN=63
4.2%-90.3%0.310.056.7x19385%
MACD
fast=14, slow=43, signal=19
5.1%-73.5%0.310.079.9x55050%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=45, k=2.8
3.9%-61.1%0.290.066.0x12121%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=58, slow=254
3.1%-66.6%0.260.054.1x5758%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=17, slow=36
2.7%-90.6%0.250.033.5x34754%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=34, atrPeriod=17, mult=2
2.7%-56.3%0.230.053.5x25530%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=19, threshold=15
2.1%-68.0%0.220.032.6x57945%
Supertrend
period=20, mult=3.2
1.0%-79.2%0.200.011.6x25756%
ROC 모멘텀
n=64, threshold=0.12
-2.6%-92.7%0.05-0.030.3x51734%
Buy and hold9.0%-91.1%0.420.1055.0x1100%
1x 10x 1981 1987 1993 1999 2005 2011 2017 2023 Parabolic SARBuy and hold
Parabolic SAR: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -23% -46% -68% -91% 1981 1987 1993 1999 2005 2011 2017 2023 Buy and holdParabolic SAR
Parabolic SAR maximum drawdown -80.2% (1999-07-21 → 2015-08-24), prior peak not yet recovered.

Rules of the top strategy

Trades around the Parabolic SAR dots that accelerate toward price.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were carried forward from the latest full optimization and replayed on this monthly dataset. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-optimize the same period and setupAll asset reports

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