Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어
equity · US
DocuSign, Inc. backtest
10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of DocuSign, Inc.. 8 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is Keltner 채널 돌파 (CAGR 15.4%, MDD -25.0%).
Results by strategy
8 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 3.9%, drawdown -87.6%).
Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 16.8%, MDD -27.7%, Sharpe 0.85, 16% exposure.
CAGR reference leader: Supertrend — CAGR 18.3%, MDD -60.4%, exposure 50%.
Return/drawdown alternative: Keltner 채널 돌파 — CAGR is 12.9%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 59.8%p (CAGR 15.4%, MDD -25.0%, exposure 20%).
The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.
| Strategy · parameters | CAGR | MDD | Sharpe | Calmar | Total | Trades | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donchian 채널 돌파 entryN=135, exitN=12 |
16.8% | -27.7% | 0.85 | 0.60 | 3.6x | 8 | 16% |
| Keltner 채널 돌파 emaPeriod=42, atrPeriod=15, mult=3.8 |
15.4% | -25.0% | 0.75 | 0.62 | 3.3x | 12 | 20% |
| 볼린저 밴드 돌파 n=51, k=2.2 |
15.8% | -36.4% | 0.70 | 0.44 | 3.4x | 21 | 26% |
| Supertrend period=5, mult=4.6 |
18.3% | -60.4% | 0.65 | 0.30 | 4.0x | 25 | 50% |
| SMA 크로스오버 fast=55, slow=102 |
15.4% | -53.8% | 0.59 | 0.29 | 3.3x | 19 | 44% |
| ADX / DI 방향성 period=10, threshold=36 |
6.2% | -25.9% | 0.47 | 0.24 | 1.6x | 38 | 12% |
| ROC 모멘텀 n=58, threshold=0.04 |
10.2% | -59.5% | 0.46 | 0.17 | 2.2x | 97 | 42% |
| EMA 크로스오버 fast=47, slow=125 |
7.5% | -57.6% | 0.38 | 0.13 | 1.8x | 16 | 47% |
| Parabolic SAR step=0.02, maxStep=0.36 |
-10.6% | -87.7% | -0.08 | -0.12 | 0.4x | 189 | 53% |
| MACD fast=15, slow=44, signal=14 |
-13.6% | -91.7% | -0.19 | -0.15 | 0.3x | 109 | 52% |
| Buy and hold | 3.9% | -87.6% | 0.36 | 0.04 | 1.4x | 1 | 100% |
Rules of the top strategy
A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).
- Buy — Buy on a breakout above the highest high of the last 135 days
- Sell — Sell when price breaks below the lowest low of the last 12 days