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Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · US

Immunic, Inc. backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Immunic, Inc.. 10 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Parabolic SAR ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is Keltner 채널 돌파 (CAGR 4.3%, MDD -29.8%).

Data 2014-04-17 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 3,090 (12.3 years)Costs 0.5%Venue XNASMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

10 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR -37.9%, drawdown -100.0%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Parabolic SAR — CAGR -4.8%, MDD -95.3%, Sharpe 0.34, 44% exposure.

CAGR reference leader: Keltner 채널 돌파 — CAGR 4.3%, MDD -29.8%, exposure 1%.

Return/drawdown alternative: Keltner 채널 돌파 — CAGR is 33.0%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 4.6%p (CAGR 4.3%, MDD -29.8%, exposure 1%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Parabolic SAR
step=0.04, maxStep=0.36
-4.8%-95.3%0.34-0.050.5x38144%
MACD
fast=6, slow=26, signal=4
-10.7%-97.5%0.30-0.110.3x39851%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=6, atrPeriod=20, mult=3.6
4.3%-29.8%0.280.141.7x61%
ROC 모멘텀
n=14, threshold=-0.01
-16.8%-98.2%0.20-0.170.1x37649%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=18, threshold=10
-17.2%-96.9%0.15-0.180.1x19749%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=25, exitN=41
-19.5%-99.1%0.13-0.200.1x4753%
Supertrend
period=11, mult=2.2
-16.8%-98.0%0.13-0.170.1x12241%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=29, k=1.1
-14.7%-97.9%0.10-0.150.1x11832%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=50, slow=110
-21.6%-98.0%0.01-0.220.1x1528%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=54, slow=166
-27.6%-99.2%-0.04-0.280.0x2335%
Buy and hold-37.9%-100.0%0.25-0.380.0x1100%
0.01 0.1 1x 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Keltner 채널 돌파Parabolic SARBuy and hold
Parabolic SAR (Sharpe leader), Keltner 채널 돌파 (CAGR reference), Buy and hold.
0% -25% -50% -75% -100% 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Buy and holdKeltner 채널 돌파Parabolic SAR
Parabolic SAR maximum drawdown -95.3% (2014-06-16 → 2017-08-29), prior peak not yet recovered.

Rules of the top strategy

Trades around the Parabolic SAR dots that accelerate toward price.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupMore US assetsAll asset reports

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