Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · US

Masco Corporation backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Masco Corporation. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester.

Data 1980-03-17 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 11,688 (46.4 years)Costs 0.5%Venue XNYSMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 7.6%, drawdown -90.3%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 5.4%, MDD -56.2%, Sharpe 0.34, 61% exposure.

No strategy retained at least 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR while reducing drawdown by both 20% relatively and 5 percentage points absolutely.

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=74, exitN=88
5.4%-56.2%0.340.1011.5x6561%
Supertrend
period=7, mult=5
3.5%-58.4%0.260.064.9x15758%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=40, slow=125
3.2%-65.7%0.250.054.3x11359%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=38, slow=64
3.0%-55.2%0.240.053.9x14760%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=37, threshold=32
0.2%-9.9%0.160.021.1x40%
ROC 모멘텀
n=121, threshold=-0.02
0.0%-72.3%0.120.001.0x39964%
MACD
fast=17, slow=46, signal=16
-0.4%-86.6%0.10-0.000.8x54650%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=41, k=1.1
-1.5%-83.3%0.03-0.020.5x40445%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=59, atrPeriod=15, mult=1.7
-2.6%-86.3%-0.03-0.030.3x31843%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.015, maxStep=0.12
-4.2%-98.4%-0.05-0.040.1x79452%
Buy and hold7.6%-90.3%0.380.0829.6x1100%
1x 10x 1981 1987 1993 1999 2005 2011 2017 2023 Donchian 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Donchian 채널 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -23% -45% -68% -90% 1981 1987 1993 1999 2005 2011 2017 2023 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파
Donchian 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -56.2% (2020-09-02 → 2026-03-30), prior peak not yet recovered.

Rules of the top strategy

A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were carried forward from the latest full optimization and replayed on this monthly dataset. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-optimize the same period and setupAll asset reports

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